Where is the Puck Skating to?

Last month, Meta showed off Orion, which I can only describe as a concept car version of augmented reality (AR) glasses. Orion is a pair of AR glasses that come with a compute puck, that is wirelessly connected to the glasses, and a neural wristband that tracks hand movements.

Orion, or some future version of it, is purported to be the device/platform that will replace smartphones. The idea of strapping a computer to your face and seeing the world through it not new, and has been attempted in many forms in the past, most recently, Apple Vision Pro. What past attempts have in common, though, is that they are generally heavy, which makes them unsuitable (depending on how much discomfort you're willing to tolerate) for long-duration use. They also suffer from getting too hot, having a lower than acceptable battery life, and a myriad of other challenges. Orion, on the other hand, is designed to be much lighter in weight and will not get as hot, given that it shifts the heavier components of the compute to a dedicated puck. As a result, they will be comfortable to wear for longer periods of time, potentially even outside (without looking like a dork).

It is a concept car because it is almost certainly not going to ship as is, owing to the production cost of at least $10,000. However, I think the reveal, and the subsequent interviews by Meta's leadership, gave us some tidbits about Orion and how Meta is thinking about positioning it going into the next platform for computing.

Meta's Bet

So why did Meta show this concept car? The popular theory seems to be that it was because Snap was planning to show its AR glasses product, putting pressure on Meta. Especially considering Meta sunk around $75 billion, a number that does not seem to be slowing down, into its Reality Labs division, there is a ton of pressure from investors to show something tangible for what this money had been up to. That makes sense, but what does it mean for the first AR glasses that will actually ship? I think Meta is sort of uniquely positioned to be able to showcase such a demo compared to Apple and Google. Meta's strategy appears to focus on using as many off-the-shelf components as possible (other than the custom lenses, of course) to get the product to market quickly. An approach that is diametrically opposed to what Apple wants to do, control the entire stack.

Both Google, and Apple, probably have prototypes similar to Orion, in that they are AR glasses with compute off loaded to a different component. However, Google has already made an attempt in this space with Google Glass. We all remember how that went. I don't think they are going to do a lot of convincing by showing a prototype, without even a dev-kit for developers to start building for (you might be thinking that devs could build for the Quest line and port their apps to Orion. Alas, it does not seem like it is going to be that simple). The stakes feel much higher, and given the non-existence of an AR glasses market, I'm not sure what is there to be gained by showing a prototype years in advance.

Apple's Move

What about Apple? Sure, the company does not like to show products/features before they are ready for launch (a sentiment that has at least one exception, see the rollout of Apple Intelligence), but it's also because Apple cannot show/ship such a product. The obvious question would arise: why not use the iPhone as the compute puck? The iPhone has a ton of headroom when it comes to its processor. It feels natural to want to have the iPhone, that is already always in your pocket when you're out and about, to act as the puck for the glasses.

Typically, the fact that Apple can leverage its platform and use APIs that third-party developers cannot, is a massive, if not unfair, advantage. Apple Watch, for instance, is something that only Apple can build. Assuming that Meta is actually "close" to shipping Orion, I wonder if this expectation of being able to use the iPhone as the compute puck puts Apple in a thermal corner. Bos said that the initial prototype of Orion was running so hot that they had to cool it with chilled soda cans. He also said that the current version runs out of battery (~ 2h of usage) before it hits the thermal limit, which means making the battery beefier in order to get more battery life is not straightforward. Granted, Meta is using off-the-shelf parts, while Apple has some of the best chips when it comes to their power draw vs the amount of performance they can extract. But keep in mind, that the current generation of iPhones do a whole host of tasks today for people, and survive about a day or more doing so. It seems that adding AR-related computation to the mix, regardless of how efficient the chips are, will require the iPhone to get heavier.

The Case for iPhone Ultra

The iPhone is a device that is insanely popular, selling over 200 million units per year. It is also the primary computing device for a lot of people around the world, so any design changes will impact tens of millions of people. Given the rumors of the iPhone 17 lineup adding a new "Slim" or "Air" model to the mix, I wonder if Apple is already preparing for a future rebranding of the lineup. I think the term "Pro" has become too overloaded, so, I'm not a fan of further complicating this. Apple should keep the current Pro line, and have it mean pro photography and videography. They should add a tier above this, iPhone Ultra. A model such as iPhone Ultra has long been rumored (first in 2022, and again in 2023), but it did not make sense as to why an iPhone with a lot more power than the Pro line needed to exist. I cannot think of a single person that thinks that the current iPhones are compute-restricted. With the advent of more demanding compute for AI and AR, I think it is the right time for this model. iPhone Ultra can be heavier and pack the most powerful chip (maybe exclusive to it), and be the only phone to support AR capabilities in the initial years. As AR-related compute gets cheaper, compatibility and features could trickle down to the regular and Pro lines, while Ultra still gets the newest and best features, similar to what is currently happening with the Pro line. If the glasses are anything like the Vision Pro, in that they are extremely expensive at launch, and only target the higher end of the market, I could see Apple limiting their compatibility to the most powerful iPhone model to start with.

Here's my prediction for how the lineup will evolve over the next few years.

• iPhone Air: Two screen sizes, and is the default phone most people should buy.
• iPhone Pro: Same as now, with cutting edge photography and video features, while maintaining a reasonable balance of weight and battery life.
• iPhone Ultra: The highest end, no compromises iPhone, that gets the most powerful A-series chip, and is the only one initially to support the AR product.

The Road Forward

Whether or not Meta's intent was to pressure Apple with Orion, it has undoubtedly set a new benchmark for future AR devices. If Meta's vision holds, AR might just break free from its current limitations, propelling the industry into a new era of personal computing--one in which the "puck" defines the play.